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BACKGROUND: Several risk factors have been associated with the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF). However, some important factors that may play substantial roles have been neglected in the final suggested risk models. In this study, we aimed to derive a new clinical risk index to predict AF in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we enrolled 3047 isolated CABG patients. A random sample of 2032 patients was used to derive a risk index for the prediction of post-CABG AF. A multivariate logistic regression model identified the independent preoperative predictors of post-CABG AF, and a simple risk index to predict AF was constructed. This risk index was cross-validated in a validation set of 1015 patients with isolated CABG. RESULTS: Post-CABG AF occurred in 15.9% and 15.7% of the patients in the prediction and validation sets, respectively. Using multivariate stepwise analysis, four preoperative variables including advanced age, left atrial (LA) enlargement, hypertension and cerebrovascular accident contributed to the prediction model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve curve = 0.66). The effect of advanced age appeared to be dominant [age ≥ 75 years; odds ratio: 4.134, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.791-6.121, p < 0.001]. Moderate to severe LA enlargement had an odds ratio of 2.176 (95% CI: 1.240-3.820, p = 0.013) for developing AF in our risk index. CONCLUSIONS: LA size was an important factor in risk stratification of post-CABG AF, which remained significant in the final model. Future scoring system studies might benefit from the use of this variable to obtain a more robust predictive value.
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INTRODUCTION: Late obstructive pulmonary artery remodeling presented as CTEPH portends adverse sequelae and therapeutic challenges. Although progressive dyspnea on exertion beyond three-month period of treatment with anticoagulants is a diagnostic cornerstone, uncertainty still surrounds early identification and risk factors. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We have conducted a prospective study among survivors of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) who were treated by anticoagulants for at least 3 months. Patients with preexisting pulmonary hypertension (PH), severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and low ejection fraction (EF) in baseline echocardiography (EF < 30%) were excluded. Complete follow-up for 290 subjects were performed. According to a predetermined stepwise diagnostic protocol, patients with exertional Dyspnea and PH probable features in echocardiography underwent lung perfusion scan. RESULTS: Cumulative two-year incidence of CTEPH was 8.6% (n = 25). There was no patient with normal baseline right ventricular (RV) function in CTEPH group. In the same way, none of these patients had only segmental involvement in baseline CT angiography (CTA) in CTEPH group. Greater proportion of CTEPH group received fibrinolytic therapy, however the difference was not significant (2.6% vs 8 %, P = 0.16). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated significant association of RV diameter, and PAP in baseline echocardiography as well as RV strain in CTA with development of CTEPH. Corresponding odds ratios were 1.147 (1.063-1.584) P < 0.0001) , 1.062 (1.019-1.106, P = 0.004), and 2.537 (1.041-6.674), P = 0.027), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We found that incidence of CTEPH was relatively high in the present investigation. RV diameter, baseline PAP and RV dysfunction were independent predictors of CTEPH.
